Chaos: A Statistical Perspective by Kung-Sik Chan, Howell Tong

By Kung-Sik Chan, Howell Tong

It was once none except Henri Poincare who on the flip of the final century, known that initial-value sensitivity is a basic resource of random­ ness. For statisticians operating in the conventional statistical framework, the duty of significantly assimilating randomness generated by way of a in simple terms de­ terministic method, known as chaos, is an highbrow problem. Like another statisticians, we've got taken up this problem and our interest as journalists and individuals has led us to enquire past the sooner discoveries within the box. past statistical paintings within the sector was once regularly con­ cerned with the estimation of what's occasionally imprecisely referred to as the fractal measurement. throughout the varied phases of our writing, huge parts of the publication have been utilized in lectures and seminars. those comprise the DMV (German Mathematical Society) Seminar application, the inaugural consultation of lectures to the difficulty issues venture on the Peter Wall Institute of complex Stud­ ies, college of British Columbia and the graduate classes on Time sequence research on the college of Iowa, the collage of Hong Kong, the Lon­ don tuition of Economics and Political technology, and the chinese language college of Hong Kong. we've got for this reason benefitted tremendously from the reviews and proposals of those audiences in addition to from colleagues and buddies. we're thankful to them for his or her contributions. Our detailed thank you visit Colleen Cutler, Cees Diks, Barbel FinkensHidt, Cindy Greenwood, Masakazu Shi­ mada, Floris Takens and Qiwei Yao.

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Example text

1) where X t and Ct are vectors in R d , d ~ 1, {ct} is a sequence of iid random variables and ct+l is independent of X t , X t - 1 ,···, Xo. In the following, X and c are random vectors having the same distribution as X t and ct respectively. 1) can be regarded as a random perturbation of the following deterministic difference equation: Xt+l = T(Xt), n ~ O. 2) can be loosely regarded as a complex signal contained in the data. In conventional statistical modelling, the perturbation is often assumed to be state independent and Gaussian.

The Q-Q plot is obtained by first sorting, separately, the data of each time series in, say, ascending order, and then plotting the scatter diagram of the two sets of ordered data. ) It turns out that 'almost all' solutions obtained by iterating the logistic map, and with different initial conditions, have the same marginal distribution, which is known as the natural (physical) probability distribution (measure). The meaning of the phrase 'almost all' in the preceding sentence will be explained later.

Thus, instead of presenting a formal account here, we shall adopt an informal approach in which we illustrate some basic concepts of deterministic chaos through a few examples. A more systematic account is relegated to Appendix A for interested readers. Because the nonlinear dynamics literature is growing almost exponentially, we must stress that, as far as this area is concerned, what we shall present in our book may be regarded as the very minimum coverage. For further coverage, readers may refer to Alligood et al.

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