Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition by Kevin B. Korb

By Kevin B. Korb

Updated and elevated, Bayesian synthetic Intelligence, moment Edition offers a realistic and available advent to the most options, starting place, and purposes of Bayesian networks. It makes a speciality of either the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference strategies. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors talk about using Bayesian networks for causal modeling. additionally they draw all alone utilized study to demonstrate quite a few functions of the technology.

New to the second one Edition

    • New bankruptcy on Bayesian community classifiers
    • New part on object-oriented Bayesian networks
    • New part that addresses foundational issues of causal discovery and Markov blanket discovery
    • New part that covers tools of comparing causal discovery programs
    • Discussions of many universal modeling errors
    • New functions and case studies
    • More assurance at the makes use of of causal interventions to appreciate and cause with causal Bayesian networks

    Illustrated with actual case stories, the second one version of this bestseller keeps to hide the basis of Bayesian networks. It offers the weather of Bayesian community expertise, computerized causal discovery, and studying chances from info and indicates how you can hire those applied sciences to strengthen probabilistic specialist systems.

    Web Resource
    The book’s site at www.csse.monash.edu.au/bai/book/book.html deals a number of supplemental fabrics, together with instance Bayesian networks and knowledge units. teachers can e-mail the authors for pattern recommendations to some of the difficulties within the text.

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    Additional resources for Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition

    Sample text

    If, for example, we know of the occupants of a car that one is black and the other has blonde hair, what then is the probability that the occupants are an interracial couple? Clearly not 1/1000! If we know of a man that he has a mustache, is the probability of having a beard unchanged? These claims are preposterous, and it is simply shameful that a judge, prosecutor and defence attorney could not recognize how preposterous they are — let alone the mathematics “expert” who testified to them. Since e2 implies e1 , while e2 , e3 , e4 jointly imply e5 (to a fair approximation), a far better estimate for P(e|¬h) is P(e2 |¬h)P(e3 |¬h)P(e4 |¬h)P(e6 |¬h) = 1/3000.

    3 Probability calculus The probability calculus allows us to represent the independencies which other systems require, but also allows us to represent any dependencies which we may need. 2 In particular, a mapping of certainty factors into likelihood ratios. 1: (a) The event space U; (b) P(X); (c) P(X ∪Y ). The probability calculus was specifically invented in the 17th century by Fermat and Pascal in order to deal with the problems of physical uncertainty introduced by gambling. ” So now we introduce this formal language of probability, in a very simple way using Venn diagrams.

    Then, instead of Bayesian conditionalization, apply Jeffrey’s update rule for probability kinematics: Bel(h) = P(h|e)Bel(e) + P(h|¬e)Bel(¬e) (Jeffrey, 1983). Jeffrey’s own example is one where your hypothesis is about the color of a cloth, the evidence proposition e describes the precise quality of your visual experience under good light, but you are afforded a view of the cloth only under candlelight, in such a way that you cannot exactly articulate what you have observed. Nevertheless, you have learned something, and this is reflected in a shift in belief about the quality of your visual experience.

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