Asian Development Outlook 2011 Update: Preparing for by Haruhiko Kuroda

By Haruhiko Kuroda

The Asian improvement Outlook 2011 replace expects constructing Asia to maintain its powerful progress over the subsequent 2 years, regardless of the tepid outlook for the USA, the eurozone, and Japan. The area could be buttressed via fit household call for and buoyant intraregional alternate. coping with inflation should be a key concentration for coverage makers, to permit for inclusive progress. Such progress comprises the aged, who're all too usually left at the back of as Asia's conventional kin networks weaken. because the aged will shape an ever-larger proportion of the region's inhabitants over the following few many years, states must confirm their financial security---and meet the broader fiscal implications for society.

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This approach may also extend to addressing the potential buildup of speculative asset bubbles and inflation. As pointed out in ADO 2011, more flexible exchange rate regimes could also be useful in providing an automatic filter to fend off speculative short-term capital inflows. In addition, and only when necessary, imposing selective and carefully designed temporary capital control measures that are conducted in a regionally coordinated manner could also be part of the policy mix. Continuing growth amid global uncertainty 25 Intra-Asian cooperation—for today and tomorrow As seen, developing Asia grew rapidly in the first half of 2011 in a robust recovery that maintained its momentum despite the persistent fragility of the recovery in the major industrial economies.

Q3 Q4 Production in members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by the Gulf trio of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates, is expected to grow moderately in 2011 and to average about 30 million barrels per day (bpd) in both 2011 and 2012 (Box figure 4). 4 OPEC oil production Gulf 3 Other OPEC Million barrels/day 16 15 14 13 12 2 Brent crude spot price $/barrel 130 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan 2008 09 10 Source: JP Morgan Energy Strategy. Jul Jan Jun 11 110 90 70 50 30 Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Aug 2009 10 11 Source: Bloomberg (accessed 29 August 2011).

Steps toward rebalancing by allowing currencies to fluctuate more freely would assist in anchoring inflation expectations and containing capital inflows in the short term. 2 Link between population aging and aggregate consumption in developing Asia Rebalancing ultimately requires a greater role for domestic demand—consumption, investment, or both— in gross domestic product growth. Developing Asia has considerable room for growth in consumption, due to the expansion of purchasing power as a result of fast growth.

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